A recent Kantar Emor survey reveals strong preferences for Kamala Harris among residents of the Baltic States, with significant implications for the upcoming US presidential election. In Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, around half of respondents favor Harris, with support peaking at 70% in Lithuania. The survey also highlights how ethnic identity shapes voting preferences, with ethnic Estonians showing a clear preference for Harris over Trump. A majority of respondents believe that the US elections will significantly affect their economies and international relations.
Key Takeaways
- The Kantar Emor survey reveals strong support for Kamala Harris among Baltic State residents, with nearly 70% backing her in Lithuania.
- Ethnic identity plays a significant role in voting preferences, with a marked divide in support for Harris and Trump among different ethnic groups in Estonia.
- Most respondents believe that the outcome of the US elections will significantly impact their countries' economies and international relations.
Overview of Kantar Emor Survey Findings
A recent survey by Kantar Emor reveals that residents of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania largely prefer Democratic candidate Kamala Harris for the upcoming US presidential election. Approximately half of the respondents in Estonia and Latvia express support for Harris, while her backing reaches about 70% in Lithuania. Around 30% of participants from Estonia and Latvia remain neutral regarding their preferences. The survey emphasizes that ethnic identity significantly affects voting choices. In Estonia, 66% of ethnic Estonians favor Harris, compared to only 16% who support Republican candidate Donald Trump. Among other nationalities in Estonia, the support is more mixed: 47% are neutral, 27% favor Harris, and 25% back Trump. The results also show a strong correlation between party affiliation and candidate support. For example, 70% of supporters from the Conservative People's Party, EKRE, prefer Trump while Isamaa party supporters overwhelmingly back Harris. About half of the participants across the three Baltic nations believe Harris has a strong chance of winning the election, whereas only one-fifth think Trump will succeed. A significant majority, nearly two-thirds, feel that the US elections will greatly affect their economies, trade, and peace. On US aid to Ukraine, most respondents in the Baltic states (48% in Estonia, 43% in Latvia, and 49% in Lithuania) support increasing assistance. Notably, ethnic Estonians are particularly in favor, while non-ethnic respondents exhibit more divided opinions. The survey concludes that many anticipate the US's global position will improve or remain stable under Harris, while they believe it would decline if Trump were elected. This survey gathered data from 3,160 individuals aged 16 and older across the three countries from September 19 to
26.
Impact of Ethnic Identity on Voting Preferences
The Kantar Emor survey reveals significant insights into how ethnic identity shapes political preferences in the Baltic region. In Estonia, the support for Kamala Harris among ethnic Estonians stands at 66%, in stark contrast to just 16% for Donald Trump. The differences among various nationalities in Estonia highlight a more nuanced picture, with only 27% of non-ethnic Estonians favoring Harris and a notable 25% supporting Trump. These voting patterns reflect larger cultural and political dynamics at play, particularly as individuals align their preferences with party ideologies. For instance, the Conservative People's Party EKRE shows a strong preference for Trump, demonstrating how party loyalties can skew perceptions of individual candidates. Nearly two-thirds of respondents across the three countries believe that US elections have tangible implications for their nations' economies and overall stability, illustrating the interconnectedness of global politics.
