Norway's EU Membership Consideration Grows Amid Changing Global Dynamics

Published: April 11, 2025

In the wake of significant international developments, Norway is re-evaluating its long-standing policy of remaining outside the European Union (EU). Recent events, particularly the geopolitical shifts related to Russia and the implications of former U.S. President Trump's foreign policy, have intensified discussions surrounding potential EU membership for the Nordic nation.

The Context of Change

Historically, Norway, along with Finland and Sweden, has maintained a cautious stance on military alliances. The recent full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 has prompted Finland and Sweden to rethink their long-held non-NATO positions, revealing vulnerabilities in relying on manageable threats for national security. Similar pressures are now being felt in Norway regarding its EU relationship.

Norway has traditionally viewed its strong ties with the United States, bolstered by NATO membership, as a guarantee of its national security. However, the situation has shifted in light of Denmark’s experience, a NATO member also facing unexpected U.S. policy actions under the Trump administration. Denmark, which has actively supported U.S. military efforts, was not immune to threats regarding its territorial integrity, highlighting that even steadfast allies are not assured of unwavering support.

Norway's Current EU Position

Despite not being an EU member, Norway aligns closely with EU regulations through its membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This arrangement allows Norway to participate in the single market and uphold many EU sanctions. Nonetheless, Norway lacks a representative voice in EU decision-making processes—an issue that has led to political turbulence, culminating in a government collapse over the adoption of EU energy rules in January 2025. The current government is working to navigate potential conflicts arising from EU-U.S. tariffs, further complicating its position.

Growing Support for EU Membership

Support for EU membership in Norway has noticeably increased, with recent polling indicating that 41% of Norwegians favor joining the bloc. This is a notable rise from just 27% in 2023. A significant portion of the population, 63%, expressed openness to a new referendum on EU membership, despite the political leadership’s reluctance to revisit the topic. Meanwhile, Iceland's new government has pledged to hold a referendum on EU membership by 2027, which Norway is watching closely.

The backdrop of economic prosperity, largely due to Norway's oil and gas resources, has allowed the country to thrive outside the EU. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Norway has become Europe's principal gas supplier, resulting in substantial profits that have bolstered its sovereign wealth fund to a record value of approximately 20 trillion NOK ($1.8 trillion) in 2024. However, economic independence is only one reason for considering EU membership.

The Push for Security in a New Geopolitical Landscape

Similar to Finland’s motivations for joining the EU primarily for security, Norway is recognizing the potential need for EU membership as a stabilizing factor against regional tensions. The anticipated shift in U.S. military posture in Europe raises questions about the existing balance of power within NATO, prompting Norway to reassess its role and security guarantees.

As the global landscape evolves into what appears to be a multipolar order, the relevance of EU membership is becoming increasingly evident for smaller European states. The dynamics of exclusion and inclusion in this newer security architecture may soon center around EU affiliation rather than NATO alone.

Conclusion

Norway stands at a crossroads regarding its future relationship with the EU. With rising public support for membership and evolving security considerations, the country may soon confront critical decisions that could reshape its political and economic landscape. Observers are closely monitoring how Norway's situation develops, especially as it examines the implications of recent geopolitical events and the shifting role of the United States in Europe.